In the first quarter of 2022, the corrugated paper market went out of the trend of rising first, then falling and then rising slightly. The average price reached 4067/ton, down 8.45% from the previous quarter and up 1.96% from the same period last year. Among them, on the supply side, the output in the first quarter rose by 5.09% month-on-month and fell by 4.95% year-on-year, which partially supported the price of corrugated paper; on the demand side, affected by the public health event, weak demand suppressed price increases. In the second quarter, it is expected that the corrugated paper Corrugated Carton Machine market will fluctuate in a stable and narrow range. Among them, the price support factors are expected to be at a medium and high level under the tight supply of raw material waste yellow cardboard, and the cost of raw materials will continue to be under pressure. However, affected by the public health incident, it is expected that the demand side will remain weak from April to May. In addition, Shanying Paper's corrugated paper and containerboard paper production lines are scheduled to be put into operation in the second quarter, and the pressure on the market supply side will increase. Therefore, it is expected that the paper price in the second quarter will increase. Maintain a stable and narrow range trend. Q1 market review In the first quarter of 2022, among the three products in the packaging paper Corrugated Cardboard Cutting Machine industry chain, all showed a downward trend from the previous month, with two up and one down compared with the same period last year. Among them, the highest year-on-year increase was containerboard, an increase of 2.35%, and the decline was waste yellow cardboard, a decrease of 0.88%. In the first quarter of 2022, the corrugated paper market showed a trend of first rising, then falling, and then slightly rising. The average price was 4067/ton, down 8.45% month-on-month and up 1.96% year-on-year; the highest quarterly was 4128/ton, and the quarterly lowest was 3983/ton . The main reason for the market trend in the first quarter is that the terminal demand continues to be weak. Profits in the packaging paper industry chain in the first quarter of 2022 all showed a downward trend. Among them, the profit of corrugated paper was 645/ton, down 25.86% from the previous month; the profit of containerboard paper was 989/ton, down 9.69% from the previous month. The main reason for the decline in profit was the increase in raw material costs and the increase in power costs. Analysis of the production status of corrugated paper Corrugated Box Machine in the first quarter In the first quarter of 2022, the output of corrugated paper was 4.66 million tons, an increase of 225,800 tons from the previous quarter, or 5.09% from the previous quarter; the average capacity utilization rate of corrugated paper in the first quarter reached 52.33%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points from the previous quarter. The main reason for the increase in corrugated paper output and capacity utilization rate in the first quarter is that from January to February each year, corrugated paper production enterprises are shut down for maintenance before and after the Spring Festival, and the production capacity utilization rate is at a low level throughout the year. However, in October 2021, affected by the "double control of energy consumption" policy, production enterprises in many provinces were forced to stop production in a centralized manner, so the output and capacity utilization rate dropped significantly. In addition, the peak season on the eve of the Spring Festival in 2022 is not prosperous. In order to ease the pressure on inventory, the capacity utilization rate of paper companies will also be at a low level from November to December 2021, which will further reduce the capacity utilization rate in the fourth quarter of 2021. Inventory analysis of corrugated paper in the first quarter At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the inventory of corrugated paper manufacturers was 791,900 tons, down 9.54% from the end of the previous quarter; the average inventory in the first quarter of 2022 was around 740,000 tons, up 25.58% from the average inventory in the previous quarter. The main reason for the fluctuation in the inventories of production enterprises is that the demand in many provinces has weakened due to the impact of the public health event. Import and export analysis in the first quarter From January to February 2022, the cumulative import volume of corrugated paper was 361,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.77%. From January to February 2022, the cumulative export volume of corrugated paper was about 6,300 tons, down 32.01% year-on-year. The main reason Corrugated Packaging Machine for the fluctuations in imports is that due to the impact of the public health event, the supply of overseas corrugated paper has decreased, and the amount of paper used for overseas express delivery and takeaway has increased. Production forecast for the second quarter It is expected that in the second quarter, the output of corrugated paper will increase to 1.73 million tons. The main reason is that more paper companies arrange annual downtime for maintenance during the Spring Festival, so the output from January to February is at an annual low level. Although the public health incident affected the capacity utilization rate in April, the capacity utilization rate will increase in May-June and the production will increase. The capacity utilization rate in the second quarter was 53%-63%. Import and export forecast It is expected that in the second quarter, the import and export of corrugated paper will show a stable trend, of which the import volume is expected to reach 480,000 tons, and the export volume is expected to reach 9,000 tons. The second quarter mentality survey In the corrugated paper market survey in the second quarter, 58% of market participants are optimistic about the market in the second quarter or wait and see. Although the demand this year has shrunk due to the public health incident, the cost of raw materials has risen significantly, so the paper price may be in a stable trend. 20% are bullish on the market in the second quarter, mainly believing that the cost of raw materials, power costs and transportation are on the rise this year, the profits of production enterprises are already meager, and paper companies are more willing to raise prices; 22% are bearish on the market in the second quarter, mainly thinking that This year has been greatly affected by the public health incident, domestic demand has been sluggish, and exports are still limited.
